The era of easy returns may be over. The past few years have been a historical anomaly. We are entering an era of geopolitical fragmentation, physical constraints, and violent disruptions. Yet, the majority of portfolios remain calibrated for yesterday's world and passively track global indices. We cling to the dogmas of the past, reassured by a consensus blind to crises. To thrive, let's ask ourselves the uncomfortable questions:

I. The “geopolitics of tomorrow”: outdated geopolitics

1. What if current interest rates (4-5%) weren't "high," but simply normal? Are your strategies viable in a world where capital once again has a real cost and where "zombie" companies no longer survive?

2. Is inflation the enemy, or a deliberate political tool of "financial repression" to erode public debt? If so, isn't holding government bonds or euro funds a sure form of financial suicide?

3. What if the main driver of inflation was neither monetary nor energy-related, but demographic? Won't the contraction of the working-age population in many countries lead to a structural increase in wages and costs?

4. Obsessed with the Sino-American rivalry, are we ignoring the most certain time bomb: China's demographic collapse? Is the "Chinese Century" already over, or is robotization changing the equation?

II. Traditional assets: obsolete assets

5. Is the 60/40 portfolio dogma (stocks/bonds) dead? If the correlations between these assets become positive (they fall together), the foundation of modern diversification collapses. What replaces it?

6. Has passive investing (ETFs) become a systemic risk? Has the massive influx into indices not created a bubble in a few stocks (like the "Magnificent Seven"), increasing market fragility and the inefficiency of capital allocation?

7. Is the explosion of "Private Equity" (unlisted) a smart allocation, or an illiquid time bomb? Are these assets resilient, or simply undervalued at their true market price during periods of stress?

8. How many "stranded assets" do you hold? Are your office buildings or industrial holdings correctly valued in light of regulatory, climate (carbon), and technological (remote work, AI) risks that could negate their value?

III. Non-financial factors: a golden opportunity

9. Is the market not dangerously overvaluing intangible assets (software) while dramatically undervaluing hard and essential assets (critical metals, mines, energy infrastructure, freight)?

10. Hasn't the ESG narrative created spectacular opportunities in "unloved" sectors that are essential to sovereignty (defense, agri-food) and which finance is abandoning out of conformity?

IV. The return of risk: excellent news

11. Is international geographic diversification becoming a source of risk rather than protection in a world that is fragmenting?

12. Should we still invest in countries whose strategic interests diverge from our own, at the risk of seeing our assets seized, sanctioned or arbitrarily devalued?

13. Is the "just-in-time" era over? Should we favor companies that invest in "just-in-case" solutions (inventory, relocations), even if this sacrifices short-term profitability?

14. Isn't the European obsession with regulation and budgetary discipline suicidal at a time of massive investments in defense and reindustrialization?

15. Are we not facing a historic opportunity to reconcile financial return and societal impact, by financing not speculation, but the concrete reconstruction of the infrastructure and services of tomorrow?

Conclusion Dear readers of Boursier.com, I don't have the answers to these questions. However, I believe that ignoring them right now is not in our best interest, neither in the long nor the short term. Portfolios haven't changed, but the world has changed its regime.

And what about us?

Vincent Aurez